update on STI

Hi there. The market is getting pretty volatile, so i thought that i should take a step back and have a look at the longer term trend of the STI.

Above is a weekly candlestick chart of the STI with the Fibonacci retracements drawn in. The STI has been on a steady uptrend since it cut the moving average line sometime in late March 2009; and the STI is still on an uptrend. It only crossed briefly below its moving average line in late January 2010. It crossed back above its moving average in mid Mar 2010.

The STI broke through the 50% Fibonnacci sometime in Oct 2009 and has been trading above it since. It managed to break through the 61.8% (2977) last week, but it has fallen back down slightly. As i write this, the STI is slightly above the 2977 mark, but i guess the STI needs to break the psychological 3000 mark for people to turn bullish.

I would say the uptrend in the STI is still intact and would recommend to buy STI blue chip companies on dips.

a look at Genting SP

Good morning, it has been a long time since my last post. The main reason is that the market has been so quiet that i really do not know what to comment about. But i decided to give some comments on selected stocks for your information and also to keep me sharp.

Today i cover Genting. I attach its weekly chart above to give us a longer term perspective. Generally in 2010, Genting has been on a downtrend after hitting the high of $1.32 in Jan 2010. Its low this year was $0.835 in Mar 2010. So where is it likely to go from here? It has been trading within a tight range during the past 4 weeks within the upper band of the 50%-61.8% Fibonnaci retracement levels. So it looks like the bias is to the upside.

Significant levels are at $0.90 (round number) and $0.835 (the low for this year). If Genting closes below the second price level, then most likely it is headed lower. A close above $0.95 would be very positive for Genting.

where is the STI heading?

Good morning, the STI was very quiet in Feb 2010. I am not sure why things were so quiet, but it could be due to the CNY holidays in China and Hong Kong. My comments on the STI:

Looking at the longer term trend, The STI is still trapped in no-man's land; between the 50% and 61.8% fibonacci retracements. Support at 2700 appears to be very strong, but for the STI to resume its uptrend, it has to break above the 61.8% level (about 3000 points).



Medium term trend: sideways, with slight upward bias toward the upper channel of the bollinger bands.



Short term trend: momentum moving up (based on MACD) and the upturn in the moving average line. The STI looks poised to go up further in the short term. Initial resistance is around 2800.

start of a major correction?

Good morning, the STI is now at a critical junction. It gapped down this morning below the key 50% retracement level of 2692. It would be a very bad sign if the STI cannot close above the 2700 level. The next support is 2603.

update on STI

Good morning, just a quick update on STI's trend. Above is a daily chart of the STI. The trend, as indicated by the moving average line in the middle of the main chart, is down. But this is lagging indicator. Momentum is still down slightly, but appears to be leveling off. Key levels to note now is 2745 and 2700. Last Friday, the STI closed at 2745, so it is not clear if the 2745 support is holding. But today, the STI opened lower at 2736, and is unable to break above the 2745 level. Key would be slightly below the 2700 level (which is the 50% retracement level). The major trend would have changed to down if the STI were to close below that level. Between 2700 and 2745, the market is undecided. If the STI can close comfortably above the 2745 level, i think a base would have formed and the market can have the momentum to go up.

next support for STI

Good morning, STI closed yesterday at 2706, just shy of psychological round number support of 2700 and the 50% retracement of 2694. This should be a major support. Next support is at 2603. If the STI does break 2700, the correction could be quite severe.

Major correction ?

Just a quick note: Last major support for the STI is 2745. Above chart was taken about one hour ago. If STI closes below this, then it could be the start of a major correct. The next support should be 2700 (round number). I would suggest short term investors to wait till the market finds some support before going in. Longer term investors may start to accumulate blue chip shares.