Saturday, February 21, 2009
GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES
The STI chart is pretty depressing. Apparently, it was the lowest close since 2003. To me, 1570 is key. Next would be 1474. If the STI were to breach these two levels, then I am afraid that we are looking at the 1205 level seen in Mar 2003.
Are there any bright spots in this gloom? Have a look at Golden Agri. Golden Agri-Resources is the world's second largest oil plan plantation, by planted hectarage, with the world's largest total land bank. This counter caught my eye as it has been very active during the past few weeks compared with the general sluggishness of the rest of the market. Its weekly chart is shown above. Like the STI, it too shows a spectacular descend, with its high of $1.25 in Feb 08 to a recent low of $0.155 in Oct 08 (a whopping 88% loss). Since then, it has been on a steady uptrend. It appears to be undergoing a slight consolidation, or correction, probably in line with the general weakness in the STI, but as long as the price stays above the middle of the Bollinger Band, i would say that the uptrend is holding pretty well. Notice that the volume has been consistently high since Oct 08, coinciding with the general rise in its share price. It would appear that people are accumulating this stock. To me, this counter is certainly worth paying attention to.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Where are we going from here? Here is a weekly chart of the STI. Unfortunately, the trend is down. The previous support at 1674 was broken yesterday and today, the STI continues to weaken. The DOW is close to is Nov 08 lows. For the STI, Nov 08 low was 1570. Today, we closed at 1629. Let us see if the STI can stay above the Nov 08 lows.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Where are we now?
The STI went on a free fall since Oct07 (high of 3734) till Oct 08 (low of 1473).
After that huge drop in the STI, however, since Oct 08, the STI has been moving sideways. In fact, from Nov 08 to Jan 09, it has been making higher lows. The bars of the monthly MACD-Histogram has changed from red to green, indicating that the downward momentum of the STI has changed from negative to positive. Does this mean that the STI will rebound soon? No, I am not suggesting that. What the chart seems to indicate is that while there is still much uncertainty going forwards, the selling pressure has certainly eased and that it does appear that there is more upside than downside to the STI.
My first blog
The intent of this blog is to share my views of the equity market. I try to read as widely as possible in order to have an idea of what is happening around us, and hopefully, this will give me a sense of how the market will behave going forward. But often, the market moves in surprising ways. Of course, after the market has made its moves, 'experts' will find reasons for the 200-point drop in the DOW or whatever has happened in the past.
For me, i prefer to analyze the behaviour of the market using technical analysis. Hence the name of my blog 'technically speaking'.
For me, i prefer to analyze the behaviour of the market using technical analysis. Hence the name of my blog 'technically speaking'.
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