STI and Golden agri - reversal?

Above is a daily chart of the STI. After yesterday's huge down candle, today we have a doji. This normally signals a reversal in trend, which in this case, would be a reversal of the downtrend since mid february. But a close below the previous low (3235) would signal a continuation of the correction. Above is a daily chart of Golden Agri. Poorer than expected results drove the share price lower. But $0.60 looks like a good support level and an entry for this counter. Resistance is at $0.685.

a look at the STI and some selected stocks

With the uncertainty over the US elections over, the market refocused on the many problems facing the world economy. For the local market, we are seeing another correction to the major uptrend started in Jun this year. The previous correction was in August when the STI hit the then year high of 3087 before hitting a low of 2977, a drop of 110 points over slightly less than a month. We hit a new 2012 high of 3111 in Oct and today's low was 2994 - a drop of 117 points over about 5 weeks. Based on today's price action (it bounced off the longer term moving average), and the generally oversold condition, it is likely that we will see a bounce up to the 3030 region. For now, the shorter and medium term trends are down, with minor relieve rallies. Key support number is 2977. If the STI breaks below that, we are in for a major trend reversal just like what happened in May this year.

Noble group dropped almost 8% to close at $1.175 after releasing results that disappointed analysts. We are now back to testing its previous major support at 1.165. A break below 1.165 would mean a possible retracement all the way to 1.02. Conversely, a break above 1.215 may see it attempt to close the gap at 1.265.

Plenty of selling pressure at genting. Results to be released next week. It has been sold down to previous support levels at 1.235 so there is a good chance of a bounce up to 1.31. But have to wait for 1.235 to hold first.

Another stock retracing all the way back to the previous low of 0.59. But there appears to be some support at about 0.605, and the MACD is exhibiting signs of a bullish divergence. If we are able to close above 0.625, there is a good chance of a reversal to the upside.

a look at STI and some stocks

Here is an end of day daily chart of the STI. The STI broke 3020 support during the day before climbing back to close within the sideways channel. The STI is still very much undecided. In the shorter term, the downside risk is greater as the STI has broken below both the short term and medium term moving averages. A close below 3020 would mean a likely test of 3000 points and 2990 points of the longer term moving average.

shares in Noble group sold off hard today after news broke that the consortium of NOBLE and POSCO walked away from its bid to take over the iron ore and steel producer, ARRIUM. Today's price action is extremely negative and it is sitting right at the previous low of 1.265 and slightly above the 144day moving average. Failure to hold the level around 1.25 could mean a drop to around the 1.22 level.

Golden agri continues to face selling pressure. Today's price action looks like a candlestick hammer - a reversal pattern, but i would like to see a close above 0.62 tomorrow for confirmation of a reversal.

Genting SP has been consolidating since 10 october and it looks like a breakout to the upside today with high volume. There is a good chance of it retesting the previous high of 1.42.

key levels for STI, noble group and golden agri

We are now 12 days into a sideways market, which has retraced about 50% to 3040, before rebounding strongly and settling above 3051 over the past 3 sessions. Longer term trend is still up. Key support is at 3040, key resistance is at 3088.

Noble group's price pattern is similar to the STI, but stronger. It has been drifting lower since the huge gap up from 1.28 to 1.31. That gap remains unfilled and is acting as a strong support. Key resistance is 1.38.

Golden Agri has been a huge disappointment after it released convertible bonds. The trend has been down since then. Support is now at 0.63, with resistance at 0.675.

tipping over? or buying opportunity?

Stock market was a bit more exciting today. The market gapped lower and proceeded to sell off hard. But after one hour of hard selling, buyers came back and pushed the index back to where it opened in the morning. Bargain hunters? Or do they know something we don't. As i write now, Europe is still down. Strong support is at 3041 and resistance is at 3088. But if this support fails, the next strong support will be at about 2990. There is a bearish divergence between the MACD and the index charts, so do trade cautiously.

Golden agri staged a remarkable rebound in the afternoon to close at the day's high at 0.72. The stock has been trading in a downward channel since mid July, but support at the moving averages is rather strong. Momentum is slightly up now. Support is at 0.700 and resistance is at 0.745.

Noble Group's price action is rather bullish now, having broken through all three moving averages. It's retracement over the past 3 days is healthy is looks like a good opportunity to take a long position. A long entry between 1.21 and 1.24 would be ideal, with the initial profit target of 1.29. A stop could be placed at 1.19 since 1.21 is a support level.

Gentng is also doing a bit of a retracement, but the stock is still a bit stuck, with resistance at the middle moving average. Price action is a little bullish and a good long position is at 1.305, with an initial price target of 1.38. Initial stop should be placed at 1.23.

national day correction?

After hitting a 2012 high of 3086, the STI has been weak over the past 2 days. It closed 3052 today. Support looks to be at 3040 and resistance is at 3086. Momentum is slightly down, but trend is still on the upside.

golden agri saw heavy selling today and the share price fell from the open at 0.725 to a low of 0.690 before closing at 0.700. I am not too sure of the reason for the big drop, but is probably due to rising inventory levels of CPO (crude pail oil) and falling demand. I was rather bullish on this stock since early july but I am not so sure now as the technical picture is not so positive. It has already broken what looks like support at 0.705 to me (the meeting of the moving averages), so it is best to see where is the next support before deciding on jumping into this trade. Initial support looks like 0.690, resistance is at 0.74.

Noble group, on the other hand, seems to have found support at 1.05 and is staging a rebound. It has broken through both the short and medium term moving averages and looks set to head towards the longer term moving average. Resistance is at 1.175, support is at 1.05.

STI back to 3050

The STI gapped down at the open, mirroring the weaker closes of the US markets, but soon found its footing later in the afternoon. I am looking for it to go to 3100 soon. Support is at 3016.

Golden Agri also had a weak open and at one point in time was sold down to 0.71. But it rallied in the afternoon to close at 0.725. Resistance is at 0.745.

Capitaland rose strongly today on high volume to close at 3.12. Support is at 3.00. First target is 3.155, second target is 3.20. This stock is outperforming the STI.

Genting rose slightly on high volume. The larger trend of Genting is still down, but momentum is going higher. It seems to have found some support at 1.285. There is some resistance at 1.32, and the next resistance is at 1.41.

STI breaks through 3040

Yes! STI has broken through its previous high of 3040 and i think will head towards 3100 (the 161.6% fibonacci projection). Support looks to be around 3020.

Capitaland has also broken through 3.00, and is headed towards 3.155 (the previous pivot high). Support is about 2.95.

Golden Agri is rather disappointing today. I had expected it to continue going up to 0.78, but it instead fell to 0.72. Support remains at 0.705 and my short term target for this stock is 0.78.

will STI break through this time?

Very volatile day for the STI today. It gapped down at the open, and then slowly powered up to close near major resistance again. I think the STI will break this level very soon.

Golden agri has bounced off nicely at 0.705 and is headed towards 0.780.

Capitaland has broken 3.00 and should be headed towards 3.155. Support is at 2.865.

Noble group fell off support of 1.05 to a low of 1.02. It recovered over the past 4 days to close at 1.075. The is a bullish divergence between the share price and the MACD, so indications are that the price is headed higher. But there are many resistances to overcome, namely the three moving averages. So for now, support is at 1.05, resistance is at 1.10.

Bears win today

The bulls really got killed today. We opened very optimistically today, but again, we got sold down in the afternoon to close just at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. The major trends are still up, but momentum is down. It looks ugly, but I think any retracements should be a good buying opportunity. But please buy only the uptrending stocks on retracement. Support for the STI is now down to about 2971, which is also the level of the shorter term moving average. Strong resistance at 3030.

What do i mean when i say buy only uptrending stocks on retracement? Have a look at the chart of Wilmar above. I am showing a weekly chart to give you a better overall view of the major trend. This stock has been trending down since 2010, at a peak of $7.29. It did find some support at $6.00, then about $5.25 and after it broke $4.50, its downtrend suddenly accelerated. I do not know the reason for such weakness in Wilmar's share price, but to me, the only good way to trade wilmar is on the short side. Technically, resistance is around $3.88, but it looks like the stock is headed towards $2.94 (the next Fibonacci retracement level).

Here is a chart of Golden Agri, which is in a similar business to Wilmar, which is processing CPO (crude palm oil) into edible oils. I am only showing a daily chart here, but you can see from the relative position of the prices to the multiple moving averages, and also the recent price action, that it is on an uptrend and has been retracing for the past 5 days. Support is at 0.705, and today's price action looks rather bullish as it closed above yesterday's close. Support is at 0.705, with resistance at 0.78.

STI - good start, but faded at the close

The uptrend for the STI seems to have resumed, but i suppose news from Europe was not so good, and hence the sell down. i think the new support level is 3000, and resistance remains at 3040.

Commodities is looking less and less attractive by the day. Here is a daily chart of Golden agri. It has been coming down for the past 5 days with no sign of a reversal yet. Support looks to be at 0.700, where the mid and long term moving averages are. Short term resistance is 0.73.

With commodities losing favour, where is the money going to? Once sector looks to be property development. Above is a daily chart of Capitaland. It has been going up for the past 3 days and is testing resistance at $3.00 again. Look to go long once it breaks out of $3.00 with an initial target of $3.155

When will this correction end?

Here's a look at the STI. It hit a top of about 3040 four days ago and went down hard for 2 days, and is going sideways for the past 2 days. That looks good. Support looks to be around 2970 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and MAJOR resistance is 3040. Momentum is down, but i think if the STI is able to close above 3000 points tomorrow, we should be headed higher towards 3040 and retest the high!! It seems rather interesting how the bad news about the Eurozone crises is released just when the STI hit heavy resistance of about 3030.

Commodity stocks have been taking a beating over the past few days. Golden Agri has fallen for four consecutive days. Support is around 0.715 (the 23.6% fibonacci retracement level), 0.710 (the previous pivot high) and 0.705 (the medium and longer term moving averages). Resistance is 0.78 (the most recent high). Momentum is falling, but price should be supported by the moving averages.

The price action for Noble Group has gotten rather ugly. It broke previous support of 1.08 about 6 days ago and two days ago broke major support of 1.05. The next support is mostly likely to be a psychological 1.00 level. The major trend for this stock remains down.

Genting remains a favourite counter for many looking for a bargain. But its price action is extremely weak. It has broken through a major support level at 1.305 and it looks like it is headed to 1.20. Major trend is down.

sti makes a 2012 high?

It does look like the STI has hit the year's high, but turnover seems suspiciously low. Top gainers are banks, SIA, Keppel Corp, sembcorp and big property developers like Capitaland and CDL.

Golden agri is still struggling to break 0.78. It was a weak day for this stock, but finished quite strongly at 0.77. Good support at 0.76. Resistance at 0.78.

Capitaland is still trapped in a box range, between 3.00 and 2.90.

end of day look at STI, plus Golden Agri, Capitaland and Genting SP

The advance of the STI is very relentless. We are up again, and has hit or is very close to hitting the multiple tops around 3030. What i see, and probably what everyone can see, is that this is heavy resistance and it is very likely that the STI will retrace before making a decisive push past the 3030 level. Momentum is falling, but longer term trend is up as all the moving averages have turned up.

After closing slightly above major resistance of 0.72 yesterday, Golden Agri powered up today on very high volume to close at 0.76. Support is now at 0.735, resistance is at 0.78

Capitaland is still trapped in a box. Trend is up, support is at 2.90, resistance is at 2.99.

Genting's chart is quite ugly for those looking to go long or are on the long side. It is on a confirmed down trend, with price below all three moving averages and all three moving averages are pointing down. Insiders are obviously selling the stock, and you can see that everytime the price stages a brief rebound, it goes on another leg down. News from the press is that RWS is being investigated for offering rebates to offset the levy charged to Singaporeans. If true, then RWS could be looking at some heavy fines. I also believe that some analysts are not so keen on them bidding for a stake in Echo as the returns may not be so attractive. I do not know the real reason behind the share's weakness, but whatever it is, it is best to stay away from going long until some support is shown.

resistance at 3000 points

The STI finished up at 2998 after hitting an intraday high of 3004. Momentum is easing off, and without big boys doing the heavy buying, most people are taking a wait-and-see attitude. It looks like the STI will consolidate for a short while before gathering enough strength to push through the 3000 mark.

Capitand has retraced quite significantly from its previous high, but the lows are still getting higher and i think it is a matter of time before it break out of 2.99. Resistance for Capitaland is at 3.00 and support is at about 2.865.

Golden agri managed to close above the heavy resistance of 0.72, albeit at a relatively low volume. The ideal entry into Golden Agri would be a retracement to about 0.70 because support is strong at that level. Resistance is at 0.735.