Friday, November 9, 2012

a look at the STI and some selected stocks

With the uncertainty over the US elections over, the market refocused on the many problems facing the world economy. For the local market, we are seeing another correction to the major uptrend started in Jun this year. The previous correction was in August when the STI hit the then year high of 3087 before hitting a low of 2977, a drop of 110 points over slightly less than a month. We hit a new 2012 high of 3111 in Oct and today's low was 2994 - a drop of 117 points over about 5 weeks. Based on today's price action (it bounced off the longer term moving average), and the generally oversold condition, it is likely that we will see a bounce up to the 3030 region. For now, the shorter and medium term trends are down, with minor relieve rallies. Key support number is 2977. If the STI breaks below that, we are in for a major trend reversal just like what happened in May this year.
Noble group dropped almost 8% to close at $1.175 after releasing results that disappointed analysts. We are now back to testing its previous major support at 1.165. A break below 1.165 would mean a possible retracement all the way to 1.02. Conversely, a break above 1.215 may see it attempt to close the gap at 1.265.
Plenty of selling pressure at genting. Results to be released next week. It has been sold down to previous support levels at 1.235 so there is a good chance of a bounce up to 1.31. But have to wait for 1.235 to hold first.
Another stock retracing all the way back to the previous low of 0.59. But there appears to be some support at about 0.605, and the MACD is exhibiting signs of a bullish divergence. If we are able to close above 0.625, there is a good chance of a reversal to the upside.

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