Major uptrend still intact, expect big moves

Above is a monthly chart of the STI. Since the low of 2009, we have been in a major uptrend, with only a minor correction in late 2011. Very significantly, we have broken through the previous high of 3313 at end 2010 and it looks likely that the STI will test 3600 soon. Support now is 3313. Capitaland is now resuming its uptrend after some consolidation. Support now is 3.60, with resistance at about 4.00. Boustead: consolidated sideways after hitting a high of 1.485. It looks like it will resume its uptrend. Support at 1.36, resistance is at 1.485. Today's price action was significant, with high volume and huge movement in price. Expect the upward momentum to continue. Noble group. Suffering from weak commodity prices. Price action traced a double bottom at 1.12, and looks poised to break out of the downtrend. Broken through the 21 EMA, but stopped by the 55 EMA. Significant resistance at 1.175. A close above that will signify a possible trend reversal.

a look at STI and selected counters

Above is a weekly chart of the STI. I am showing a weekly chart to give us a better feel of the major trends. The STI had quite a remarkable runup since mid November 2012 and is has been trading sideways for about 3 weeks now. Support is strong at 3200 with resistance at 3238. The major trend is up, and you can see that since Oct 2011, we have been making higher highs and higher lows. Any weakness in the market should be a good opportunity to go long.

Here is a daily chart of Noble Group. Consolidating after a huge runup in December 2012. Looks poised for another leg up. Support is 2.15. Resistance is 1.25, then 1.265 (the start of the huge gap down).

Genting is also consolidating after a runup in December, but the upside potential appears to be rather huge. Support is at 1.420 and resistance is at 1.635. There is also a bullish divergence between the MACD and the price between the july bottom and the Oct bottom, which is playing itself out now.

a look at the STI and some selected stocks

With the uncertainty over the US elections over, the market refocused on the many problems facing the world economy. For the local market, we are seeing another correction to the major uptrend started in Jun this year. The previous correction was in August when the STI hit the then year high of 3087 before hitting a low of 2977, a drop of 110 points over slightly less than a month. We hit a new 2012 high of 3111 in Oct and today's low was 2994 - a drop of 117 points over about 5 weeks. Based on today's price action (it bounced off the longer term moving average), and the generally oversold condition, it is likely that we will see a bounce up to the 3030 region. For now, the shorter and medium term trends are down, with minor relieve rallies. Key support number is 2977. If the STI breaks below that, we are in for a major trend reversal just like what happened in May this year.

Noble group dropped almost 8% to close at $1.175 after releasing results that disappointed analysts. We are now back to testing its previous major support at 1.165. A break below 1.165 would mean a possible retracement all the way to 1.02. Conversely, a break above 1.215 may see it attempt to close the gap at 1.265.

Plenty of selling pressure at genting. Results to be released next week. It has been sold down to previous support levels at 1.235 so there is a good chance of a bounce up to 1.31. But have to wait for 1.235 to hold first.

Another stock retracing all the way back to the previous low of 0.59. But there appears to be some support at about 0.605, and the MACD is exhibiting signs of a bullish divergence. If we are able to close above 0.625, there is a good chance of a reversal to the upside.

a look at STI and some stocks

Here is an end of day daily chart of the STI. The STI broke 3020 support during the day before climbing back to close within the sideways channel. The STI is still very much undecided. In the shorter term, the downside risk is greater as the STI has broken below both the short term and medium term moving averages. A close below 3020 would mean a likely test of 3000 points and 2990 points of the longer term moving average.

shares in Noble group sold off hard today after news broke that the consortium of NOBLE and POSCO walked away from its bid to take over the iron ore and steel producer, ARRIUM. Today's price action is extremely negative and it is sitting right at the previous low of 1.265 and slightly above the 144day moving average. Failure to hold the level around 1.25 could mean a drop to around the 1.22 level.

Golden agri continues to face selling pressure. Today's price action looks like a candlestick hammer - a reversal pattern, but i would like to see a close above 0.62 tomorrow for confirmation of a reversal.

Genting SP has been consolidating since 10 october and it looks like a breakout to the upside today with high volume. There is a good chance of it retesting the previous high of 1.42.

key levels for STI, noble group and Genting SP

Daily chart of STI. Uptrend is still being maintained, but momentum is still dropping. This is a sign of a big move coming; not sure if it will be up or down. STI opened strongly, but sold off in the afternoon to close only 3 points above yesterday's close. We are still unable to close the gap. Support is at 3020, near term resistance is at 3063, then 3088.

Noble group is breaking out of support at 1.27 and is hitting resistance at 1.335. The trend is up, and I expect it to test 1.38 soon. Strong support is at 1.27.

Genting SP looks to have found support at 1.31. Overall trend is still down, but momentum is rising. Resistances are at 1.36 and then 1.45.

key levels of STI, noble group and capitaland

Above is a daily chart of the STI. The technical picture is mixed. The trend, as indicated by the moving averages, is up. However, the momentum, as indicated by the MACD, is reducing, and a sign of this is that the price action is getting quite choppy. The STI made a new high only two days ago, but profit taking has quickly set in and the upward momentum could not be sustained. Key levels to watch for are support at 3034 and resistance at 3114. There is negative divergence between the STI and its MACD, and this is normally indicative of near term price weakness.

Above is a daily chart of NOBLE GROUP. The trend changed from down to up in Mid july 2012. It appears to be consolidating now for another push higher. Support is about 1.27, but there are quite a few resistance levels. They are at 1.32, 1.34 and finally 1.38.

above ia a daily chart of Capitaland. It doesn't seem to have clear support and resistance levels, but the general direction of the trend is a pretty strong uptrend. Momentum is also declining, but there seems to be pretty good support at about 3.15. Resistance is about 3.30.

key levels for STI, noble group and golden agri

We are now 12 days into a sideways market, which has retraced about 50% to 3040, before rebounding strongly and settling above 3051 over the past 3 sessions. Longer term trend is still up. Key support is at 3040, key resistance is at 3088.

Noble group's price pattern is similar to the STI, but stronger. It has been drifting lower since the huge gap up from 1.28 to 1.31. That gap remains unfilled and is acting as a strong support. Key resistance is 1.38.

Golden Agri has been a huge disappointment after it released convertible bonds. The trend has been down since then. Support is now at 0.63, with resistance at 0.675.

tipping over? or buying opportunity?

Stock market was a bit more exciting today. The market gapped lower and proceeded to sell off hard. But after one hour of hard selling, buyers came back and pushed the index back to where it opened in the morning. Bargain hunters? Or do they know something we don't. As i write now, Europe is still down. Strong support is at 3041 and resistance is at 3088. But if this support fails, the next strong support will be at about 2990. There is a bearish divergence between the MACD and the index charts, so do trade cautiously.

Golden agri staged a remarkable rebound in the afternoon to close at the day's high at 0.72. The stock has been trading in a downward channel since mid July, but support at the moving averages is rather strong. Momentum is slightly up now. Support is at 0.700 and resistance is at 0.745.

Noble Group's price action is rather bullish now, having broken through all three moving averages. It's retracement over the past 3 days is healthy is looks like a good opportunity to take a long position. A long entry between 1.21 and 1.24 would be ideal, with the initial profit target of 1.29. A stop could be placed at 1.19 since 1.21 is a support level.

Gentng is also doing a bit of a retracement, but the stock is still a bit stuck, with resistance at the middle moving average. Price action is a little bullish and a good long position is at 1.305, with an initial price target of 1.38. Initial stop should be placed at 1.23.

national day correction?

After hitting a 2012 high of 3086, the STI has been weak over the past 2 days. It closed 3052 today. Support looks to be at 3040 and resistance is at 3086. Momentum is slightly down, but trend is still on the upside.

golden agri saw heavy selling today and the share price fell from the open at 0.725 to a low of 0.690 before closing at 0.700. I am not too sure of the reason for the big drop, but is probably due to rising inventory levels of CPO (crude pail oil) and falling demand. I was rather bullish on this stock since early july but I am not so sure now as the technical picture is not so positive. It has already broken what looks like support at 0.705 to me (the meeting of the moving averages), so it is best to see where is the next support before deciding on jumping into this trade. Initial support looks like 0.690, resistance is at 0.74.

Noble group, on the other hand, seems to have found support at 1.05 and is staging a rebound. It has broken through both the short and medium term moving averages and looks set to head towards the longer term moving average. Resistance is at 1.175, support is at 1.05.

will STI break through this time?

Very volatile day for the STI today. It gapped down at the open, and then slowly powered up to close near major resistance again. I think the STI will break this level very soon.

Golden agri has bounced off nicely at 0.705 and is headed towards 0.780.

Capitaland has broken 3.00 and should be headed towards 3.155. Support is at 2.865.

Noble group fell off support of 1.05 to a low of 1.02. It recovered over the past 4 days to close at 1.075. The is a bullish divergence between the share price and the MACD, so indications are that the price is headed higher. But there are many resistances to overcome, namely the three moving averages. So for now, support is at 1.05, resistance is at 1.10.

When will this correction end?

Here's a look at the STI. It hit a top of about 3040 four days ago and went down hard for 2 days, and is going sideways for the past 2 days. That looks good. Support looks to be around 2970 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and MAJOR resistance is 3040. Momentum is down, but i think if the STI is able to close above 3000 points tomorrow, we should be headed higher towards 3040 and retest the high!! It seems rather interesting how the bad news about the Eurozone crises is released just when the STI hit heavy resistance of about 3030.

Commodity stocks have been taking a beating over the past few days. Golden Agri has fallen for four consecutive days. Support is around 0.715 (the 23.6% fibonacci retracement level), 0.710 (the previous pivot high) and 0.705 (the medium and longer term moving averages). Resistance is 0.78 (the most recent high). Momentum is falling, but price should be supported by the moving averages.

The price action for Noble Group has gotten rather ugly. It broke previous support of 1.08 about 6 days ago and two days ago broke major support of 1.05. The next support is mostly likely to be a psychological 1.00 level. The major trend for this stock remains down.

Genting remains a favourite counter for many looking for a bargain. But its price action is extremely weak. It has broken through a major support level at 1.305 and it looks like it is headed to 1.20. Major trend is down.

a look at the STI, Golden Agri and Noble Group

Hi, just an update on the overall market and on Noble group and Golden Agri. Above is an end of the day, daily chart of the STI. It performed very strongly today, breaking through the 78.6% fibonacci retractment to end just below the 55d moving average. I strongly believe that momentum for the STI is to the upside. The next few resistance levels are at 2862 and 2875, but i think the key resistance level would be at 2900; the place of the previous major pivot. The earlier 2 resistance levels are the previous high and the 144d moving average. Support is at 2800.

Above is a daily chart of the STI. It continues to be rather weak, with support at $1.05 still pretty strong, but it appears to be unable to even clear the 21d moving average line.

Golden agri, on the other hand broke through its 21day moving average quite convincingly on the back of a strong showing yesterday. Next two resistances are at 0.67 and 0.69. Support is at 0.610.

a look at the STI, NOBLE GROUP and Golden Agri

After a breakout to a high of 2860, the STI retreated to hit interim lows of 2800 and has been trending sideways within a range of 2826 and 2800. A break above 2826 means a resumption of the uptrend and a break below 2800 would mean a continuation of the major downtrend. Above is a daily chart of NOBLE GROUP. Its behaviour is similar to the STI. It hit resistance of the 55day moving average and even fallen below the 21 day EMA. Its price action is a bit weak, but support at 1.10 and 1.05 is quite strong. Above is an end-of-day chart of Golden Agri. Again the same price action; after rebounding from a low of about 0.59, it hit a recent high of 0.67 and has corrected somewhat. But today's candle seemed rather suggestive of a reversal as it is a strong bullish engulfing pattern. Upside target is 0.67 (at the 55day moving average line) and 0.69 (at the 144day moving average line). Support is at 0.59.

A look at STI and some commodity stocks

Here is a look at the STI chart. The market has been going up for almost the whole of Jun, but it seems that all people are focusing on is the problems in EURO zone. How strange. Momentum is up, short term moving average is definitely up, medium term and longer term moving averages are starting to turn up. Today's price pattern is what is known as an inside bar, where today's high is lower than the yesterday's high and today's low is higher than yesterday's low. If the STI manages to break out of yesterday's high, it will normally continue going upwards rather significantly. And since yesterday's high also coincided with resistance of the 55day moving average, i expect the STI to explode upwards upon breaking up of this resistance. Initial resistance is at 2850, with the next one at 2880 below the 155day moving average. If these two levels are taken out, the next significant resistance would be the previous support at about 2945. Support for now is at 2820 and 2770 Below are some charts of commodity stocks. They are all showing signs of reversal to the uptrend, and a good strategy would be to buy on dips. Support levels are at their respective fibonacci levels.

a look at STI and NOBLE Group

Based on what one reads in the papers, Euro zone appears to be imploding. But looking at the STI, the chart does not look all that bad. We had a strong rebound to about 2800, which is just above the 21dsy moving average before retracing back to previous support at about 2767. This support appears to be holding well. Near term resistance is 2800, next level of resistance is about 2850. Near term support is 2767, next support is at about 2700. Momentum is turning up. Above chart is an end-of-day chart of NOBLE Group. It appears to have found support at $1.05 and now appears to be looking to test support at $1.14 after hitting resistance at $1.175. Next resistance is at $1.23. Momentum is slowly turning up.