Major uptrend still intact, expect big moves

Above is a monthly chart of the STI. Since the low of 2009, we have been in a major uptrend, with only a minor correction in late 2011. Very significantly, we have broken through the previous high of 3313 at end 2010 and it looks likely that the STI will test 3600 soon. Support now is 3313. Capitaland is now resuming its uptrend after some consolidation. Support now is 3.60, with resistance at about 4.00. Boustead: consolidated sideways after hitting a high of 1.485. It looks like it will resume its uptrend. Support at 1.36, resistance is at 1.485. Today's price action was significant, with high volume and huge movement in price. Expect the upward momentum to continue. Noble group. Suffering from weak commodity prices. Price action traced a double bottom at 1.12, and looks poised to break out of the downtrend. Broken through the 21 EMA, but stopped by the 55 EMA. Significant resistance at 1.175. A close above that will signify a possible trend reversal.

uptrend still intact? A look at capitaland

Above is a daily end-of-day chart of the STI. The major trend is still up, medium trend is still up, but on the shorter term, it looks like it will continue to trend sideways as the momentum as shown by the MACD is still weak. Support is at 3247 and resistance is at 3330. My recommended strategy is to buy blue chip counters on pull-backs. Above is a weekly chart of Capitaland. Its price has retraced somewhat from a peak of 4.025 and closed today at 3.48. There is strong support at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level of 3.4 and this looks like a good time to accumulate this counter in anticipation of a break to the upside. Upside target would be the previous high of 4.025 with a stop of 3.28. (below the 144-day EMA).

key levels of STI, noble group and capitaland

Above is a daily chart of the STI. The technical picture is mixed. The trend, as indicated by the moving averages, is up. However, the momentum, as indicated by the MACD, is reducing, and a sign of this is that the price action is getting quite choppy. The STI made a new high only two days ago, but profit taking has quickly set in and the upward momentum could not be sustained. Key levels to watch for are support at 3034 and resistance at 3114. There is negative divergence between the STI and its MACD, and this is normally indicative of near term price weakness.

Above is a daily chart of NOBLE GROUP. The trend changed from down to up in Mid july 2012. It appears to be consolidating now for another push higher. Support is about 1.27, but there are quite a few resistance levels. They are at 1.32, 1.34 and finally 1.38.

above ia a daily chart of Capitaland. It doesn't seem to have clear support and resistance levels, but the general direction of the trend is a pretty strong uptrend. Momentum is also declining, but there seems to be pretty good support at about 3.15. Resistance is about 3.30.

STI back to 3050

The STI gapped down at the open, mirroring the weaker closes of the US markets, but soon found its footing later in the afternoon. I am looking for it to go to 3100 soon. Support is at 3016.

Golden Agri also had a weak open and at one point in time was sold down to 0.71. But it rallied in the afternoon to close at 0.725. Resistance is at 0.745.

Capitaland rose strongly today on high volume to close at 3.12. Support is at 3.00. First target is 3.155, second target is 3.20. This stock is outperforming the STI.

Genting rose slightly on high volume. The larger trend of Genting is still down, but momentum is going higher. It seems to have found some support at 1.285. There is some resistance at 1.32, and the next resistance is at 1.41.

STI breaks through 3040

Yes! STI has broken through its previous high of 3040 and i think will head towards 3100 (the 161.6% fibonacci projection). Support looks to be around 3020.

Capitaland has also broken through 3.00, and is headed towards 3.155 (the previous pivot high). Support is about 2.95.

Golden Agri is rather disappointing today. I had expected it to continue going up to 0.78, but it instead fell to 0.72. Support remains at 0.705 and my short term target for this stock is 0.78.

will STI break through this time?

Very volatile day for the STI today. It gapped down at the open, and then slowly powered up to close near major resistance again. I think the STI will break this level very soon.

Golden agri has bounced off nicely at 0.705 and is headed towards 0.780.

Capitaland has broken 3.00 and should be headed towards 3.155. Support is at 2.865.

Noble group fell off support of 1.05 to a low of 1.02. It recovered over the past 4 days to close at 1.075. The is a bullish divergence between the share price and the MACD, so indications are that the price is headed higher. But there are many resistances to overcome, namely the three moving averages. So for now, support is at 1.05, resistance is at 1.10.

STI - good start, but faded at the close

The uptrend for the STI seems to have resumed, but i suppose news from Europe was not so good, and hence the sell down. i think the new support level is 3000, and resistance remains at 3040.

Commodities is looking less and less attractive by the day. Here is a daily chart of Golden agri. It has been coming down for the past 5 days with no sign of a reversal yet. Support looks to be at 0.700, where the mid and long term moving averages are. Short term resistance is 0.73.

With commodities losing favour, where is the money going to? Once sector looks to be property development. Above is a daily chart of Capitaland. It has been going up for the past 3 days and is testing resistance at $3.00 again. Look to go long once it breaks out of $3.00 with an initial target of $3.155

sti makes a 2012 high?

It does look like the STI has hit the year's high, but turnover seems suspiciously low. Top gainers are banks, SIA, Keppel Corp, sembcorp and big property developers like Capitaland and CDL.

Golden agri is still struggling to break 0.78. It was a weak day for this stock, but finished quite strongly at 0.77. Good support at 0.76. Resistance at 0.78.

Capitaland is still trapped in a box range, between 3.00 and 2.90.

end of day look at STI, plus Golden Agri, Capitaland and Genting SP

The advance of the STI is very relentless. We are up again, and has hit or is very close to hitting the multiple tops around 3030. What i see, and probably what everyone can see, is that this is heavy resistance and it is very likely that the STI will retrace before making a decisive push past the 3030 level. Momentum is falling, but longer term trend is up as all the moving averages have turned up.

After closing slightly above major resistance of 0.72 yesterday, Golden Agri powered up today on very high volume to close at 0.76. Support is now at 0.735, resistance is at 0.78

Capitaland is still trapped in a box. Trend is up, support is at 2.90, resistance is at 2.99.

Genting's chart is quite ugly for those looking to go long or are on the long side. It is on a confirmed down trend, with price below all three moving averages and all three moving averages are pointing down. Insiders are obviously selling the stock, and you can see that everytime the price stages a brief rebound, it goes on another leg down. News from the press is that RWS is being investigated for offering rebates to offset the levy charged to Singaporeans. If true, then RWS could be looking at some heavy fines. I also believe that some analysts are not so keen on them bidding for a stake in Echo as the returns may not be so attractive. I do not know the real reason behind the share's weakness, but whatever it is, it is best to stay away from going long until some support is shown.

resistance at 3000 points

The STI finished up at 2998 after hitting an intraday high of 3004. Momentum is easing off, and without big boys doing the heavy buying, most people are taking a wait-and-see attitude. It looks like the STI will consolidate for a short while before gathering enough strength to push through the 3000 mark.

Capitand has retraced quite significantly from its previous high, but the lows are still getting higher and i think it is a matter of time before it break out of 2.99. Resistance for Capitaland is at 3.00 and support is at about 2.865.

Golden agri managed to close above the heavy resistance of 0.72, albeit at a relatively low volume. The ideal entry into Golden Agri would be a retracement to about 0.70 because support is strong at that level. Resistance is at 0.735.

some strong stocks

Above is a daily end of day chart of the STI. The uptrend of the STI is extremely strong and well behaved (technically). There was a nice 38.2% retracement in late June, and after that, it went up to the 100% level, broke it and hit the 161.8% target before retracing for only one day. Another strong day today to close at 2989 points. I drew the resistance at 3005 because that was the level of the previous support. That is also approximately the mean of the multiple tops encountered during the first half of 2012. Now 3000 points is an extremely key level given that we failed to penetrate it convincingly this year. But i would hesitate to short it because it appears to be the most obvious trade. I do believe the STI will surprise to the upside. But for now, resistance is 3005 and support is at 2909.

Capitaland is now rather firmly on the uptrend since both the shorter and longer term moving averages have turned up. MACD has also turned positive. An extremely good trade would be to go long at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement yesterday. The region between 2.85 and 2.90 is good for a long position. Look for pull backs into this region. Support is at 2.86, resistance is at 3.00.

Another stock now in an uptrend is Golden Agri. All the key moving averages have turned up, plus the MACD is also now in positive territory. However, it seems to be trapped in a box range bounded by 0.720 and 0.695. It would be good to go long either on retracement back to 0.695 or on a breakout of 0.73.

Olam, Capitaland, STI

Above is a weekly chart of the STI because I wanted to show the larger trend of the STI. Things do not look so good. The STI struggled from August to stay above the very key support of 2640. From the weekly chart, we can see that the STI has been in a down trend since Oct 2010. If the STI weekly chart were to close below 2600, the downtrend could be very severe. Let us see how things unfold in 2012.

Below are weekly charts of Capitaland and Olam. I have decided to highlight these two charts because they are showing extremely weak price action and trends.




Above is a weekly chart of Capitaland. It closed below a key support of 2.275. Capitaland has been on a downtrend since October 2011. It looks like it is approaching the lows of 2009 of $1.785. It is best to avoid buying this stock until it finds support.



Above is a weekly chart of Olam. It looks dangerously close to breaking support of around $2.13. I also would suggest not buying this counter unless it rebounds convincingly from this level.

end of day look at STI, capitaland

Another down day for the STI. I see continued weakness for the STI. Momentum is down, 50day moving average is showing down trend, 200day moving average continues to trend down. It has also closed slightly below the previous pivot low of 2640; and it is not a good thing.




After the announcement of our government's property cooling measure, naturally, property counters took a big hit. It closed just above the previous pivot low of $2.75. It looks a bit like a hammer, but not quite and I am wondering if it will find support at this level.

In summary, the overall trend of the market is down, but prices of most counters are at major support / pivot levels, so a technical rebound looks possible.

update on sti and a look at noble, capitaland and genting SP

Today, the STI closed above the 200day moving average and below the 50day moving average. Momentum is still strongly upwards. Immediate resistance is at the 50day moving average line and next would be the previous swing high of around 3110.



Genting SP's upward momentum is extremely strong now. It has broken through the 50day moving average and previous swing high of $2.04 to close at $2.05. Next resistance is at $2.20.



Noble Group's upward momentum is also very strong. It also closed above the 50day moving average line. Next resistance is at the previous swing high of $2.25.




In great contrast to the previous stocks, Capitaland is still on a sideways trend with a bias to the down side since it has broken support of $3.50. Above is a WEEKLY chart (the rest are DAILY charts), which show that the price of Capitaland has been sideways since the middle of 2009. Volume is strong today, which is why i am highlighting this counter, but it really is not a pretty chart.

Capitaland - support holding?

Here is a daily chart of Capitaland. I suggested sometime ago to buy when it breaks out of $3.00. However, over the past 8 trading days after the breakout, it has been steadily losing momentum (as seen by the falling MACD). If the price of Capitaland breaks below $3.00, i would suggest to stop buying or cut loss, and to wait till the uptrend resumes.

Capitaland - Poised to breakout of $3.00

After its failure to breakthrough $3.00, Capitaland consolidated over the past 2 weeks and looks poised for another attempt to breakout of $3.00. MACD also looks poised to give a buy signal (red line crossing blue line). I would suggest to go long for Capitaland upon successful breakout of $3.00.

Capitaland - ready to reverse?

The share price of Capitaland has been dropping steadily since its failure to close above $3.00 on 16 April 09. It has fallen through a rising window's support at $2.66 and is now poised just above another rising window, with support at $2.53. The candlestick formation today looks like the start of the formation of a morning star. For this three-candle formation to be confirmed to be a morning star, the candle on the next day must be a white candle closing above $2.66. The situation based on Western technicals does not look so promising. The MACD lines have crossed downwards. The share price has also fallen below the simple moving average line. These two indications mean that the short term trend of Capitaland is down.



Above is a weekly chart of Capitaland. The medium term chart of Capitaland is still up but its upward momentum is slowing. The only plus point I can see here is that the fall in share price is accompanied by a fall in volume, so it may be that people are simply taking profit. I would suggest waiting for the short term down trend to reverse before taking a long position (buying) Capitaland.

Capitaland - Double bottom

i was looking at the chart of Capitaland and wondering what to name the title of this post. I knew that the price was going to break through $3.00 (OK, not knew, but chances are high that it would break through that price soon). I don't really want to call it 'breakout' again as that would be a bit boring. And suddenly I saw it! A double bottom on the weekly chart. And with this realisation, i can now project a price target for Capitaland once it breaks out of the $3.00 level. The projection is computed by measuring the price difference between the pivot (the $3.00 level hit in early 2009) and the line joining the bottoms (which is slightly less than $1.90 since the second bottom is at $1.70, but never mind. i'll use $1.90 to be a bit conservative), giving $1.10 and then adding this to $3.00, resulting in a price target of $4.10. And what a coincidence! $4.10 is remarkably close to a major resistance level of $4.13. My suggestion for an entry into Capitaland would be similar to my suggestion for COSCOCORP: buy upon price breaking through $3.00 on high volume.