A look a STI and Noble Group

Above is a daily chart of the STI. Today is another bullish day, with the market cheering news of a high chance of a China stimulus. Commodity related stocks rallied on anticipation of a surge in demand from China. The STI closed above 2800 points. Momentum is on the uptrend, support looks pretty strong at 2767, with resistance at probably around the next fibonnacci retracement level of about 2870.

Above is a daily chart of NOBLE GROUP. The chart pattern looks similar to that of the STI, with support at about $1.05. Today was an up day on high volume, so it looks likely that the push upwards will continue. My upside target for NOBLE group is about $1.23.

A look at STI, Noble group and Golden Agri

A look at the broad market. This is another weak day. The STI closed at 2772, barely above the support level of about 2768. The STI has been threading water above this level for this week. It is weak. The only good thing i see is that we have stopped falling. Most of us are at 'wait and see mode'.

Today's price action for NOBLE GROUP looks a quite bullish. Volume is starting to build up for this stock and it appears that it has found good support at around $1.05.

Golden Agri's price action also looks quite good. It also looks like it has found support at about $0.63. I think it will retest $0.67 again.

End of day look at the STI

Just a quick update. After gapping up into 2820 on tuesday, the price gapped down yesterday and closed weaker today. The overall trend of the market is still very bearish. If the market closes below 2767, then it will likely trend to around 2700. If the market is able to close above 2820, the market may be able to rally to 2870. Throughout the day, i noticed heavy selling in commodity stocks like Noble and Golden Agri. There was also a period of heavy selling in Genting SP. Overall, the market sentiment is not so good.

STI and NOBLE GROUP

The STI bounced today, as i think it should as it was so massively oversold. But like i mentioned in my last blog, 2767 is a rather key support level as it corresponds to the previous pivot high and is a 38.2% fibonnacci retracement level. We have a huge gap to fill, and chances are that the STI will retrace back to the 50% fibonnacci level of 2819 and even to the 61.8% fibonnacci level. But the major trend is now down and we may retest the 2700 level during the next down leg.

Above is a daily chart of NOBLE GROUP. For now, the stock has found support at $1.05. It closed higher at $1.095, but at a moderate volume on a quiet day. If the retracement continues, the resistance is at about $1.20 - $1.23. Again, major trend is down, but it is possible to catch retracements to the upside is one is nimble.

updates to STI, NOBLE GROUP and NOL

The STI gapped down past the 2800 level all they way to the 38.2% fibonnacci retracement level of 2767 before closing at 2779. This happens to be close to the previous pivot high in Jul 2011. We are very oversold on the daily chart and i expect some rebound next week. This is also a rather key pivot level. Let us see what the market gives us next week.

Above is a weekly chart of NOBLE GROUP. We tested the previous low of 1.05 and had a nice bounce from there. I certainly hope NOBLE GROUP can hold at this level. If the price breaks below this level, the next support is at $0.80, a level only seen way back in late Mar 2009. If we do manage to reverse, the upside target is $1.34

NOL also hit the previous pivot low of $1.00 before closing at $1.03. If this level fails to hold, the next downside target is $0.76, which was the low in Mar 2009 during the dark days following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. If indeed the exit of Greece from the EU is the equivalent of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, then we could see a test of such levels. Let us see how the drama unveils.

same old, same old - STI

Today i just update chart of the STI since most of the stocks exhibit the same behaviour. Above is a daily chart of the STI. After opening rather strongly in the day, the STI turned bearish as the afternoon wore on. We closed at 2821 - just shy of 2820! (the 50% retracement from the recent high of 3033 to pivot low of 2606). Such extreme pessimism. We should get a rebound soon. But i think tomorrow will be a quiet day as few people would want to hold positions in this jittery market over the weekend.

STI, noble group, NOL

Above is a weekly chart of the STI. The STI has continued its downtrend and has hit the 200period moving average. Next critical support level is around 2820. If this level fails to hold, then the selling could get rather ugly as the next major support level is at 2767.

NOL closed at $1.055 today. We could be headed towards the previous pivot low of $0.995. If NOL fails to find support at around $1.00, it could be heading into the region of around $0.85 (the previous low around Oct 2009).

Noble closed at $1.09. It also looks like it is heading towards the previous pivot low of $1.055. We are at critical levels, the sell-off looks a bit overdone to me, and i think the market will drift lower over the next two days and rebound the next week.

STI, noble group and nol

A general look at the STI. Above is a weekly look at the STI. I decided to use the weekly chart because the trends are clearer here compared to the daily chart. We closed higher today compare to yesterday. I think it is because the market was a bit oversold, so some bargain hunters came in. Things dont look so bad on the weekly chart. It looks like a normal retracement of a longer term uptrend back to test the 200 period moving average, which is about the 2830 level and maybe even the 50% retracement at 2820. Actually we managed to close above the 61.8% retracement level, but i am not so sure if we will be able to hold that level and to initiate a rebound. We shall see after Friday.

Above is a weekly chart of NOL. We are getting pretty close to its previous pivot low of $0.995. It would be interesting to see how the price behaves around the $1.00 level. If it manages to hold, then we will be able to see a rebound soon. I think $1.00 should be a strong support level for NOL.

Above is a chart of Noble Group. Even though Noble Group and NOL are in two very different sectors, their chart looks so similar. Noble group is also trending towards its pivot low and to some pretty strong support at about $1.10. If this support is able to hold, expect noble group to rebound to overhead resistance of $1.35. If Noble group is unable to hold above $1.10, the next support is at $0.80.

A look at STI and Noble Group

Noble group reported weaker than expected earnings last week. But the price started to weaken since mid February. It is almost at its pivot low of about $1.05. Keep a close watch of the price action as noble drifts lower. It may start to reverse at about $1.10.

Above is a weekly chart of the STI. Momentum is still down and it looks headed towards the 50% retracement level of about 2820. I think there is a good chance of a reversal at that level.

Another leg down for the STI

Above is an end of day daily chart of the STI. The STI went through another leg down, hit support at the 61.8% fibonnacci retracement level and saw some buying at that level. But the trend is still down and i am looking at the STI to go down to 2820 (the 50% Fibonnacci retracement level).

A look at STI and Noble Group

Above is a daily chart of the STI. It is showing signs of strength, in that it closed positive today, maybe because of news that some money will be made available to Greece to help it through another round of debt repayments, but the chart shows that the index has broken down through both 50d and 200day moving averages, momentum has shifted to the down side and the probability that it will go lower is very high. It may bounce up, but the major trend now is down. i am looking at some support at 2870. Resistance is at 2920.

Noble group has been on a downtrend for a long time, so i decided to show a weekly chart for you to get a better perspective of its price action. Basically, it has been on a downtrend since end 2010, which accelerated in 2012. Strong support is at about $1.12, so it would be a good buying opportunity should it drop to that level.

STI - support broken

Above is a daily chart of the STI. The market was holding quite well until the last hour when sellers came in at full force to drive the STI below the 200d moving average. It looks like it will be a blood bath in the European and US trading sessions tonight. My downside target for the STI will be 2800.

A short note on the STI

Just a short update on the market. Above is a daily chart of the STI. The market opened up, closed lower, but no panic selling today. I have the feeling that the market will go higher, but now it has to break through overhead resistance of the 50d MA, which is around 2970. Support for now is 2917.

STI at support. What next?

Oh dear, oh dear. STI today dropped 65 points to end up just above key support of 2912 on the slew of bad news from US and EUROPE. If the STI fails to hold above this support, then we could be looking at the STI to drop another 100 points to about 2800.

NOL encountered stiff resistance at the 50day moving average and fell, together with the broad market, to 1.21. i had thought that the trend had reversed after it broke through key resistance of 1.25, but it fell victim to the broad selling across the market. It too has come to rest above its recent pivot low. If this level fails to hold, we are looking at a drop to 1.12.

The picture of NOBLE GROUP is similar to NOL. It also dropped to its recent pivot low and a break below this price level means that the downside price target is 1.11.

STI, NOBLE GROUP, NOL

Here is a look at the STI. So where are we now? We have been going sideways since mid February, but the trend is getting clearer and clearer. There is heavy resistance at 3032; the STI hit and failed to break through three times. However, the pivot lows during each retracement has been getting higher and higher, with the 50day exponential moving average giving a pretty good support. I thought we were headed towards 2900 when the STI closed below the 50day MA in early April, but the STI bounced very strongly back up the next day. MACD also looks to have bottomed out and is starting to turn up, both the 50day and 200day moving averages are still up, so it looks to me that it is only a matter of time before the STI breaks to the upside. I think slowly, the EU is coming to the realisation that austerity alone is not going to save their stalling economies. Let us see if the ECB will provide some sort of monetary stimulus to boost growth. I would like to talk about two counters that show signs of turn-around.

NOL's share price was pretty beaten down from 1.515 to 1.195 from mid Feb 2012 to late April 2012. It's share price has since rebounded very quickly within the next three days and with a steady rise in volume. Short term indicators show that there is a high chance that a bottom has been formed and that the upward momentum is steadily building up. Initial resistance is at 1.32, support is at 1.195.

Above is a daily chart of NOBLE GROUP. I had expected it to head towards 1.11 after it closed below 1.20, but it staged a strong rally yesterday on high volume and closed higher today as well. The MACD is also starting to turn up and I also suspect that a bottom has been formed. Initial resistance is about 1.30, support is at 1.18.