update on STI

Above is a daily chart of the STI. After bouncing off 2223 level three times, it finally managed to go above its moving average line and towards its upper Bollinger Band. Its MACD has also cut above its signal line and the moving average line is also turning up. All signs of a continuation of an uptrend.



Here is a weekly chart of the STI. After trading sideways for about 5 weeks, the STI finally closed above its previous high of 2424 recorded 6 weeks ago to end the week at 2434 and on increasing volume.

My conclusion is that it is safe to go long on stocks again.

STI - bear market rally or bull market consolidation?

The behavior of the STI in Jun 09 was pretty disappointing after the super run up in May 09. I spoke to someone who believes that what happened during that past few months was not the start of a bull market, but only a bear market rally, so i had another look at a monthly STI chart (attached above). What this chart tells me is that the longer term trend, represented by the slope of the moving average, is still down. Momentum, as indicated by the slope of the MACD is turning up, but until the STI manages to cut above the moving average and the slope of the moving average line turns up, we are still not in a long term bull market yet.



Above is a weekly chart of the STI. Since Jun09, the STI has been stuck in a sideways trading range, with a slight downward bias. Support is at 2223 and if the STI goes below that, i think you should close all long positions and wait for a trend to re-emerge. The one consolation i can see is that the downward drifting of the STI is on rather low volume. That means no major sell-off, which is good, but do pay attention to how the market unfolds in Jul09.

STI - an update

Hi there! Here is the daily chart of the STI. The value of the index has rebounded off its support of 2223 and closed just below its moving average line. The MACD has stopped falling and has leveled, but the MACD histogram has started to turn up. The moving average line is still flat. Overall, the overall market as represented by the STI is now sideways. The close of the STI on Friday off its high is not that positive. Perhaps traders prefer to take profit from the three-day run up and before the weekend. I think its best to stay in the sidelines until the trend is more firm.

update on STI

Hi there. It has been about a month since my last update. The outlook based on STI's daily chart is not so good. Signs of trouble came when the MACD started to fall at about 11 May 09. However, a few days later, it managed to gap up and prety much stayed above the 2223 level since then. The negative signs are firstly, the down trend of the MACD, secondly, the index is below the moving average of it Bollinger Band and thirdly, the slope of the moving average is flattening. One plus point is that the STI managed to bounce off support at 2223. I think it would be best to stay aside for now and see where the STI goes during the following week. If it manages to turn around and to close above its moving average, that would be good. If the MACD turns around and cuts the blue line on its way up, even better; that would be the signal that the uptrend has resumed.

Daily STI - update

Hi there! Market was pretty volatile during the last week. So far, the 2245 level has been proving to be pretty tough level to break. Last week, the STI looked in danger of a trend reversal when the MACD almost crossed. It has since bounced off and looks like it may try to cut downwards again. But volume was pretty light during the last two trading days, so it looks like a case of profit taking. The trend is still up and the most recent candlestick looks like a bullish engulfing pattern. So i would say that its still quite safe to continue holding on to your long positions.

COSCO - an update

Here is a daily chart of COSCO Corp. You should notice by now that this chart, and the daily chart of Capitaland, are all very similar to the daily chart of the STI. So you can get a pretty good picture of the general behavior of the market by looking at the behavior of the STI. And like Capitaland, the price of COSCO has fallen close to its support at $1.70 after breaking strongly out of it 6 market days ago. And again, i would suggest getting out of COSCO if it breaks below $1.70 and to wait for the uptrend to be established before buying in again.

Capitaland - support holding?

Here is a daily chart of Capitaland. I suggested sometime ago to buy when it breaks out of $3.00. However, over the past 8 trading days after the breakout, it has been steadily losing momentum (as seen by the falling MACD). If the price of Capitaland breaks below $3.00, i would suggest to stop buying or cut loss, and to wait till the uptrend resumes.