wilmar - a good buy?

An extract from Wilmar's corporate website:

Wilmar International Limited, founded in 1991, is Asia’s leading agribusiness group. We are amongst the largest listed companies by market capitalisation on the Singapore Exchange.

Our business activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseeds crushing, edible oils refining, consumer pack edible oils processing and merchandising, specialty fats, oleochemicals and biodiesel manufacturing, and grains processing and merchandising. Headquartered in Singapore, our operations are located in more than 20 countries across four continents, with a primary focus on Indonesia, Malaysia, China, India and Europe. Supported by a multi-national staff force of more than 80,000 people, over 300 processing plants and an extensive distribution network, our products are sold to more than 50 countries globally.


Above is a weekly chart of Wilmar.

Since breaking through double top of $5.69 in Jul 09 and hitting a high of $7.30 in late 2009, the price has generally been sideways and range bound between these 2 price levels. There is heavy selling today down to about $5.69, supposedly on news that it is venturing into the property business. It may be worth going into if the price can hold above $5.69, but generally, with the price below the 50-period Moving Average line, it looks rather unexciting.

STI: Where is it going?

Good morning, above is a year-to-date daily chart of the STI. It looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern is forming; left shoulder around mid October, head around early November and right shoulder around early December. Confirmation of this formation would be a close below the neckline @ 3119.

The short term trend, based on the 50day Moving Average line, has gone sideways. Longer term trend, based on the 200day Moving Average line is still up.

My conclusion? The direction of the market is uncertain, so wait and see. Support: 3119. Resistance: 3220.

Happy Holidays!

STI - support held

Good evening,

today's price action of the STI was extremely bullish. I attach the daily chart of the STI above. The STI retraced to the previous swing low of 3115 five trading days ago, bounced up slightly, went sideways while the world watched how the European debt situation and North Korean tension panned out. Today, the STI bounced off 3119 level again and closed strongly above yesterday's high. I expect the STI to continue with its uptrend.

STI - update for the week

Hello,

just a quick update to the STI after the close today. Above is a daily chart of the STI. Support at the previous swing low (about 3119) appears to hold. Index level as bounced back to close just above its 50-day moving average. It would be good if the STI can follow the middle fibonacci fan line, but right now, support at the 50-day moving average is still holding. Short term outlook is sideways with a slight upwards bias. Longer term outlook is still up.

Christmas rally - retail stocks - OSIM

Good morning, i just read an article in CNBC about retail stocks in America hitting multi-year or even all time highs in ' http://www.cnbc.com/id/40262774 ', so i thought of looking at Singapore's retail stocks.

One retail stock that caught my eye is OSIM. Have a look at its 10yr weekly chart above. It tells an interesting story. Its all time high was at $2.10 in late 2006 and within 3 years, dropped to a mere $0.05 in early 2009. Since then, it has made a spectacular recovery and is trading at around $1.43 today.




Here is a look at OSIM's daily chart over one year. OSIM is now on a strong uptrend, with its prices consistently above its 200-day moving average line and trending quite close to its 50-day moving average line. A good entry point for this stock appears to be on a pull back to its 50-day moving average. For now, it appears to be powering its way to a strong finish in 2010.

STI - short term weakness

Ireland bailout, China and HK fighting property bubble and now N Korea launches artillery into S Korea. The impact on the Singapore market? High 3313, now 3126 - a loss of 187 pts or 5.6% over two weeks. The STI has closed below its 50-day moving average - very negative in the short term. It closed near the previous pivot low of 3120. If this support is broken, then it signals further downside to the STI.

My suggestion is to stay out of the market since the short term trend is very negative and to reenter only when the price bounces off the 50-Day moving average trend line. Longer term trend based on the 200-day moving average is still up.

Support level for Genting Singapore?

After Genting Singapore announced its 3Q earnings, the price gapped down and has been weak for the past few days. The price has barely held above its 50day moving average over the past 2 trading days. This appears to be the near term support (about $2.04). It is also near the psychologically important $2.00 level. If Genting Singapore should close below $2.00, i would suggest short term traders to exit their position and look to re-enter only when the price resumes its uptrend.

A look at Singapore's big 3 banks

After seeing OCBC break $10.00, i decided to have a look at the weekly charts of our big 3 local banks. I have always had the impression that DBS, having the largest market cap among the three, would be the best buy.

Market cap (not up to date, but indicative):

DBS: $33B
OCBC: $29B
UOB: $27B

However, looking at the weekly charts of the three banks (attached above), it is clear to me that OCBC outperforms the other 2 banks.

Noble Group - longer term outlook

Good morning, i was watching the progress of Noble Group with great interest after it broke another resistance level of $2.11. When I scrolled up the chart to look for the next resistance level, i suddenly saw that the next resistance level is its all time high of $2.24. Attached above is a weekly chart of Noble Group.

This is a major price level. If Noble Group manages to close above $2.24 on a weekly candle, then the potential upside price target is $2.24 + ($2.24-$1.56) = $2.92.

Breakout: STI and COSCO CORP

Long weekend for most of us. Significant 'happening' for the STI - today the STI closed above its recent high of 3220; it closed at 3240. Looks like we will see a Christmas rally this year. My near term target for the STI: 3240 + (3220-3120(recent swing low)) = 3320. I suspect the STI may hit 3400 by Dec 2010.




The other counter that also 'brokeout' is COSCO. It announced spectacular results yesterday:

3Q10 results

Cosco reported 3Q10 revenue of S$952.7m (+27% y-y) and net profit of S$55.1m (+147% y-y). The strong performance was due to higher revenue from ship building and offshore marine engineering projects as well as dry bulk shipping.

As a result, it brokeout from its previous high of $1.98 to close at $1.99 today. My near term target is $1.98 + (1.98-1.81) = $2.15.

Longer term indicators (its 50 and 200 day moving average) show that counter is in a strong uptrend.

STI - Trend reversal or correction?

The STI has come down quite sharply over the past few days. Will this be the start of a reversal in the uptrend or just a normal correction in the uptrend?

I attach a daily chart of the STI above for some simple technical analysis. The daily chart of the STI shows a steady uptrend since late May this year. It has steadily been making higher highs and higher lows. During the previous retracement in August, the STI retraced about 61.8%, and then proceeded to rally until 14 October. It has consolidated to about 61.8% fibonacci retracement. If the STI does not fall below the 61.8% mark (about 3100), then i would say that the uptrend is still intact. If history is to be a guide, the STI rebounded before reaching the 61.8% retracement. Let us see if this would be the case again. Also, the 50day moving average line also give a good indication of the STI's trend and looks like a good support level as well. During the previous retracement, notice that the STI did not really close below the 50day moving average. Now, the STI is approaching the 50day moving average. As long as the STI is able to close above the 50day moving average, i would say that the uptrend is still intact.

In my opinion, i would say that this appears to be a normal correction in an uptrend. But if the STI should breach the 61.8% fibonacci level or close below the 50day moving average, then the uptrend may have reversed and it may be time to pull out of long positions.

I will be watching the market closely and will update my thoughts on this blog if this should happen.

target for golden agri

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd is the world's second largest palm oil plantation with a total planted area of 433,200 hectares (including small holders) as at 30 June 2010, located in Indonesia. It has integrated operations focused on the production of palm-based edible oil and fat products.

Founded in 1996, GAR is listed on the Singapore Exchange since 1999 with a market capitalisation of US$5 billion as at 30 June 2010. Flambo International Ltd, an investment company, is GAR’s largest shareholder, with a 49% stake in the company. GAR has several subsidiaries, including PT SMART Tbk (“SMART”) and PT Ivo Mas Tunggal. SMART listed its shares on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 1992.

GAR is focused on sustainable palm oil production. Its primary activities include cultivating and harvesting of oil palm trees; processing of fresh fruit bunch into crude palm oil ("CPO") and palm kernel; and refining CPO into value-added products such as cooking oil, margarine and shortening. Through its subsidiaries, GAR operates 35 palm oil processing mills, three refineries and six kernel crushing plants. It also has an integrated operation in China including a deep sea port, two soybean crushing plants, and production of refined edible oil products.



Please look at the short term daily chart of Golden Agri above for a study of its price action.

The price hit a high of $0.70 on 18 Oct and has since retraced to sit between support of $0.655 (previous high) and $0.645 (61.8% fibonacci retracement).

If this support zone holds, and the price resumes its uptrend, then my near term target price for Golden Agri will be between $0.75 ($0.70 (recent high) + ($0.70-0.65)) and $0.785 (161.8% fibonacci projection).

But if the price of Golden Agri breaks significantly below the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of ($0.645), then it is a pattern failure and the above analysis becomes invalid.

How high can Genting Singapore go?

Genting Singapore PLC* ("Genting Singapore") is a leading integrated resorts development specialist with over 20 years of international gaming expertise and global experience in developing, operating and/or marketing internationally acclaimed casinos and integrated resorts in different parts of the world, including Australia, the Americas, Malaysia, the Philippines and the United Kingdom (“UK”).

Genting's rise in share price is incredible. Look at its weekly chart above. It's share price rose from a low of about $0.30 in Oct 08 to about $2.16 today (a 620% increase over 2 years!, if my maths is correct).



So where do i think the share price will go? First of all, i am bullish about this counter. It has been on a strong uptrend since Oct 08, with its price riding comfortably above both the 50 and 200 period moving averages. It hit a high of $2.18 on 20 Sep 2010 and retraced to a swing low of $1.85 on 30 Sep 2010. It is now testing the previous high of $2.18. If it should break above $2.18, the new price target is $2.18 + ($2.18 - $1.85) = $2.51. Approximate time to hit this target = time taken for it to go from its swing low (30 Sep 2010) to the day it breaks above $2.18. I approximate it to be one month.

Happy trading!

Bigger picture of COSCO Corp

above is a longer term look at Cosco.

The longer term trend of COSCO is now firmly up: the price of COSCO has now risen above both the short term 50day moving average and longer term 200d moving average.

As you can see, we have a long way to go before hitting even 50% of its all time high of $8.20.

COSCO about to breakout?

COSCO Corp (S)
Business: Ship repair, ship building & marine engineering

Technicals: It is a bit difficult to show COSCO's chart in the proper perspective. Its high was $8.20 in OCT 07 and it came crashing to $0.60 in OCT 08. It has since been climbing slowly, but in a volatile fashion, to $1.92. I attach a short term chart to show that there is resistance at $1.93 and it is now trying to breakout of that price today.

If COSCO manages to breakout of $1.93, my next upside target will be $2.18 (the 161.8% fibonnaci level from the previous swing low of $1.53.

Commodities Price Surge May Be Fueled by Japan - CNBC

Commodities Price Surge May Be Fueled by Japan - CNBC

Golden Agri

Business: involved in cultivating, processing and sale of crude palm oil (CPO) and related products.

Technicals:



A quick look at Golden agri's chart. The price peaked at $1.08 in Feb 2008. When the financial crisis hit, the price dropped to a low of $0.13 in Oct 2008. After that, it has been steadily on an uptrend, peaking at $0.655 in Jan 2010, and then consolidating sideways when fears of a double dip rose. The price tested $0.62 on three previous occasions, but each time, it failed to breakout of that price. It is testing $0.62 again today.

If it breaks out of $0.62, my upside target would be $0.62 + ($0.62 - $0.50) = $0.74. ($0.50 being the previous swing low).

STI finally broke this year's high

Good morning! It has been a long time since my last entry. The STI finally made a new yearly high last Monday. Above is a weekly chart of the STI. The STI has been largely range bound between the 50% and 61.8% Fibbonacci levels since Nov 2009, with support at 2700 and resistance at slightly above 3000. More importantly, the STI has been trading above its 200day moving average since Jun 2009 and above its 50day moving average since Apr 2009. So the major trend for the STI is up. First major resistance is at its previous high of 3258 and thereafter at the 76.8% fibbonnaci retracement at 3400. Major support is around the 61.8% fibbo retracement level at 3000 pts.

update on STI

I decided to change the presentation of my charts with the intent of keeping things simple. Above is a daily candlestick chart of the STI showing only the daily volume and a 200-day and a 50-day moving average. The 200-day and 50-day moving average shows the longer term and shorter term trend respectively.

My comments on the STI follows:

We had a minor correction from Apr 10 to late May 10 when the index dropped from 3016 to 2650. It has since rebounded and now appears to be settling above the 50-day moving average. The longer term trend, as shown by the 200-day moving average is still up. Shorter term trend is also up.

update on STI

Good afternoon, here is a short comment on the STI. Trading volume over the past 4 weeks has been anemic. Middle term trend of the STI, as shown by the moving average line, is now flat. Momentum, as shown by the MACD line, is still down.

So what we have is still a mixed picture. I guess it would be prudent to wait till some trend emerges from this muddled picture.

update on STI

Hi there! Just a quick update on the STI. Above is a weekly chart of the STI. Momentum of the STI is still down as shown by the MACD. The trend, shown by the moving average line, is now down, with the STI unable to close above this line over the past 4 weeks. Support is still at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 2695.

view of the STI

Good morning, it has been a long time since my last update - my apologies. Some quick comments from me about the STI.

Above is the weekly chart, which should give us an idea of the longer term view of the market. Momentum of the STI, as shown by MACD, has been weakening since Oct 2009. So even though the STI has been making making higher highs in Dec 2009 and in Mar 2010, the MACD has been making lower highs. This is a sign of a bearish divergence. However, the trend was still up as the index has generally stayed above its moving average. However, the index closed below its moving average (MA) three weeks ago, and it appears that the trend has turned down. I think the longer term key number to watch would be the 50% fibonacci retracement of about 2700. A close below that number would be extremely negative.



Above is a daily chart of the STI. The short term down trend is very pronounced here. The previous intraday low about nine days ago was 2775. Yesterday's close was 2774. I think if the STI goes below 2770, it is likely to head towards 2700 as i see no further support levels.

update on STI

Hi there. The market is getting pretty volatile, so i thought that i should take a step back and have a look at the longer term trend of the STI.

Above is a weekly candlestick chart of the STI with the Fibonacci retracements drawn in. The STI has been on a steady uptrend since it cut the moving average line sometime in late March 2009; and the STI is still on an uptrend. It only crossed briefly below its moving average line in late January 2010. It crossed back above its moving average in mid Mar 2010.

The STI broke through the 50% Fibonnacci sometime in Oct 2009 and has been trading above it since. It managed to break through the 61.8% (2977) last week, but it has fallen back down slightly. As i write this, the STI is slightly above the 2977 mark, but i guess the STI needs to break the psychological 3000 mark for people to turn bullish.

I would say the uptrend in the STI is still intact and would recommend to buy STI blue chip companies on dips.

a look at Genting SP

Good morning, it has been a long time since my last post. The main reason is that the market has been so quiet that i really do not know what to comment about. But i decided to give some comments on selected stocks for your information and also to keep me sharp.

Today i cover Genting. I attach its weekly chart above to give us a longer term perspective. Generally in 2010, Genting has been on a downtrend after hitting the high of $1.32 in Jan 2010. Its low this year was $0.835 in Mar 2010. So where is it likely to go from here? It has been trading within a tight range during the past 4 weeks within the upper band of the 50%-61.8% Fibonnaci retracement levels. So it looks like the bias is to the upside.

Significant levels are at $0.90 (round number) and $0.835 (the low for this year). If Genting closes below the second price level, then most likely it is headed lower. A close above $0.95 would be very positive for Genting.

where is the STI heading?

Good morning, the STI was very quiet in Feb 2010. I am not sure why things were so quiet, but it could be due to the CNY holidays in China and Hong Kong. My comments on the STI:

Looking at the longer term trend, The STI is still trapped in no-man's land; between the 50% and 61.8% fibonacci retracements. Support at 2700 appears to be very strong, but for the STI to resume its uptrend, it has to break above the 61.8% level (about 3000 points).



Medium term trend: sideways, with slight upward bias toward the upper channel of the bollinger bands.



Short term trend: momentum moving up (based on MACD) and the upturn in the moving average line. The STI looks poised to go up further in the short term. Initial resistance is around 2800.

start of a major correction?

Good morning, the STI is now at a critical junction. It gapped down this morning below the key 50% retracement level of 2692. It would be a very bad sign if the STI cannot close above the 2700 level. The next support is 2603.

update on STI

Good morning, just a quick update on STI's trend. Above is a daily chart of the STI. The trend, as indicated by the moving average line in the middle of the main chart, is down. But this is lagging indicator. Momentum is still down slightly, but appears to be leveling off. Key levels to note now is 2745 and 2700. Last Friday, the STI closed at 2745, so it is not clear if the 2745 support is holding. But today, the STI opened lower at 2736, and is unable to break above the 2745 level. Key would be slightly below the 2700 level (which is the 50% retracement level). The major trend would have changed to down if the STI were to close below that level. Between 2700 and 2745, the market is undecided. If the STI can close comfortably above the 2745 level, i think a base would have formed and the market can have the momentum to go up.

next support for STI

Good morning, STI closed yesterday at 2706, just shy of psychological round number support of 2700 and the 50% retracement of 2694. This should be a major support. Next support is at 2603. If the STI does break 2700, the correction could be quite severe.

Major correction ?

Just a quick note: Last major support for the STI is 2745. Above chart was taken about one hour ago. If STI closes below this, then it could be the start of a major correct. The next support should be 2700 (round number). I would suggest short term investors to wait till the market finds some support before going in. Longer term investors may start to accumulate blue chip shares.

Where is the STI heading?

Hi there! It has been a long time since my last update. The STI has broken out of the 50% Fibonnaci retracement mark and appears to be stalling at just below the 61.8% (2981) level. The momentum (looking at the MACD) is a bit flat with a slight upward bias. The longer term trend of the STI is still up based on the upward sloping moving average line and the fact that the prices are still above the moving average line.



Above is a daily chart of the STI. The shorter term trend of the STI is still up looking at the slope of the moving average as well as the fact that the price has been staying above the moving average line over the past 2 months.

Based on the chart of the STI, i would recommend that investors go long during market weakness.

Major resistance is 3000 points. Support appears to be 2900.