end of day picture for STI

Good evening, a quick update on today's market action. The overall technical picture is divergent; MACD indicating that the momentum is on an uptrend, while the moving averages show that the market is trending sideways. Near term support appears to be on the 200d Moving average, which is around 3060. Resistance is at the 50d moving average and previous support at 3120.

A snapshot of today's action

Today's candlestick price action of the STI is a 'gravestone doji' - not a good sign. Short term resistance is 3060, support is 2980. The 200dMA line is now acting as a strong resistance. Both 50dMA and 200dMA are turning down, so the trend of the STI appears to be down. However, the MACD indicator appears to have bottomed out and is turning up, so the overall picture is mixed. In my opinion, the STI needs to close above both the 50D and 200D moving average in order to signal a change in the downtrend.




The picture for Noble Group is more positive. Both the 50Day and 200Day moving averages are on an uptrend, the price has closed above the 50day moving average during the past 3 days and the MACD has bottomed out and is turning up.
The resistance now is $2.12 and it looks like an entry around the 50d moving average (about $2.16) represents a good low risk entry.




The picture for GoldenAgri is also quite positive. The price appears to have found support at $0.61 and has made its way above its 200day moving average line. It appears to have found resistance at its 50day moving average, having bounced off the line on 2 occasions. Momentum as shown by the MACD is back on an uptrend and i think any weakness in price represents good opportunity to enter a long position.

STI - support broken

Today's close for the STI is not good. In fact, the break below support at 3060 is a very bad sign. Today, the STI broke below the key 3000 points psychological level to close at 2973 points. The STI has now closed below the 50% fibonacci retracement level and below the 200day moving average.

Both short term and long term trends have now turned down and i would suggest longer term investors wait for a reversal before jumping in as we dont know how long the downtrend will last.

Next minor support is at 2946 and next major support is at 2900 points.

Capitaland vs Kepland

It looks like the STI has found some measure of support for now. I attach two daily charts of 2 large property developers listed in Singapore; Keppel Land and Capitaland for you to have a feel of their share performance.

Capitaland: Involved in real estate, hospitality and real estate financial services which focuses in growth cities in Asia Pacific and Europe. NAV: $3.17, PE: 15.0, PB 1.2, Yield 1.5%. Market Cap: $15,760M.

Since making a high of about $7.00 in 2007 and a low of about $1.80 in 2009, it has been going sideways, range bound from $4.43 to $3.27, for almost 2 years. Very unexciting.

Keppel Land: Involved in property trading, property investment, fund management, hotel and resort and property services. NAV $2.42, PE 24.5, PB: 2.0, Yield 1.7%, market cap $6,856M.

On the contrary, Keppel Land made a high of $6.80 in 2007, a low of about $0.71 in 2009 and has been climbing quite steadily since then.

The price has retraced to the 200-day Moving Average line and has also bounced off the 78.6% fibonacci retracement of $4.18. From a chartist's perspective, it looks like good entry point.

Update on STI

Another quick look at the STI. This has been a very vicious start to the Chinese New Year. The STI fell from a high of 3232 from 7 Feb to an intraday low of 3054 on 11 Feb. Today is the third test of support at the 200day Moving Average. So far it has held and that is a good sign. In the long term, the STI is still trending up. In the shorter term, the STI will likely trend sideways (consolidate) before breaking above the 50day moving average line. Resistance is 3120 level. Support for now is 3060.

A look at the STI

STI has been down four days in a row. Very fierce selling, especially in the property counters with heavy exposure to the China market like Capitaland. Technicals for the STI look quite bad for the short term. The STI has broken support at 3120 and looks set to go all the way to 3050.

good entry now for noble group?

The later part of Jan 2011 has been rather volatile and bearish for the Singapore market. But it does appear that this may be a good time to buy.

Above is a daily chart of Noble Group from mid 2009 till present. Moving averages show that both the middle and longer term trend is still up. It managed to break out of the previous high of 2.23 in late 2010, but has broken down in mid January 2011. Today, at the close, Noble group went below but managed to close above the 50day moving average. This seems to suggest a support at this level and it looks like a good entry for Noble group. Next support is at $2.00.