something brewing at noble?

Above is a weekly chart of noble group. In general, it has been on a downtrend since Jan 2011, and has retraced about 50% from that high. On a longer term picture, it appears to have found support at the 50week moving average line. This also corresponds to some support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.




On a daily chart of noble group, the trend based on the 50day and 200day moving averages is that of a sideways trend, with the price between the two lines. However, looking at price action coupled with the MACD indicator, it appears that a bullish divergence is forming, with the MACD forming a higher low whereas the price made a lower low on the 15 mar 2011.

Indications are strong that a reversal in noble group is happening. Support is at $2.00 with initial resistance at the previous low of $2.14.

comments on STI

The trend for the STI has been down since the start of 2011. It started at a peak of about 3280 on 6 Jan 2011 and reached a low of 2932 on 15 Mar 2011.

Is it a good time to go bargain hunting now? The STI is now trending below both 50day and 200day moving averages. A minor rally from late February managed to break above the 200day moving average line, but turned down at the 50day moving average at 3100 then. Hence the 50day moving average is acting as a strong resistance for now.

However, the MACD paints a different picture. The STI made a lower low on 15 Mar 2011 compared to the low on 24 Feb 2011. But, the MACD appears to make a higher low. This is what is known as a bullish divergence and there is a strong chance that the STI will rally from this new low. Key condition for this to happen would be for the STI to close above 3000 points soon.

end of day picture for STI

Good evening, a quick update on today's market action. The overall technical picture is divergent; MACD indicating that the momentum is on an uptrend, while the moving averages show that the market is trending sideways. Near term support appears to be on the 200d Moving average, which is around 3060. Resistance is at the 50d moving average and previous support at 3120.

A snapshot of today's action

Today's candlestick price action of the STI is a 'gravestone doji' - not a good sign. Short term resistance is 3060, support is 2980. The 200dMA line is now acting as a strong resistance. Both 50dMA and 200dMA are turning down, so the trend of the STI appears to be down. However, the MACD indicator appears to have bottomed out and is turning up, so the overall picture is mixed. In my opinion, the STI needs to close above both the 50D and 200D moving average in order to signal a change in the downtrend.




The picture for Noble Group is more positive. Both the 50Day and 200Day moving averages are on an uptrend, the price has closed above the 50day moving average during the past 3 days and the MACD has bottomed out and is turning up.
The resistance now is $2.12 and it looks like an entry around the 50d moving average (about $2.16) represents a good low risk entry.




The picture for GoldenAgri is also quite positive. The price appears to have found support at $0.61 and has made its way above its 200day moving average line. It appears to have found resistance at its 50day moving average, having bounced off the line on 2 occasions. Momentum as shown by the MACD is back on an uptrend and i think any weakness in price represents good opportunity to enter a long position.

STI - support broken

Today's close for the STI is not good. In fact, the break below support at 3060 is a very bad sign. Today, the STI broke below the key 3000 points psychological level to close at 2973 points. The STI has now closed below the 50% fibonacci retracement level and below the 200day moving average.

Both short term and long term trends have now turned down and i would suggest longer term investors wait for a reversal before jumping in as we dont know how long the downtrend will last.

Next minor support is at 2946 and next major support is at 2900 points.

Capitaland vs Kepland

It looks like the STI has found some measure of support for now. I attach two daily charts of 2 large property developers listed in Singapore; Keppel Land and Capitaland for you to have a feel of their share performance.

Capitaland: Involved in real estate, hospitality and real estate financial services which focuses in growth cities in Asia Pacific and Europe. NAV: $3.17, PE: 15.0, PB 1.2, Yield 1.5%. Market Cap: $15,760M.

Since making a high of about $7.00 in 2007 and a low of about $1.80 in 2009, it has been going sideways, range bound from $4.43 to $3.27, for almost 2 years. Very unexciting.

Keppel Land: Involved in property trading, property investment, fund management, hotel and resort and property services. NAV $2.42, PE 24.5, PB: 2.0, Yield 1.7%, market cap $6,856M.

On the contrary, Keppel Land made a high of $6.80 in 2007, a low of about $0.71 in 2009 and has been climbing quite steadily since then.

The price has retraced to the 200-day Moving Average line and has also bounced off the 78.6% fibonacci retracement of $4.18. From a chartist's perspective, it looks like good entry point.

Update on STI

Another quick look at the STI. This has been a very vicious start to the Chinese New Year. The STI fell from a high of 3232 from 7 Feb to an intraday low of 3054 on 11 Feb. Today is the third test of support at the 200day Moving Average. So far it has held and that is a good sign. In the long term, the STI is still trending up. In the shorter term, the STI will likely trend sideways (consolidate) before breaking above the 50day moving average line. Resistance is 3120 level. Support for now is 3060.