Direction of the STI

Above is a weekly chart of the STI. I think it gives a much better picture of the trend of the STI. We can see that after the great volatility in 2011, the STI has been much more subdued, trading well within the high and low of 2011. I thought we were in for a serious down move after the STI broke a key pivot at 2977 (which also happens to be below psychological level of 3,000 points), but the STI managed to claw back to close above 3000 points so far this week. And despite a weak Europe opening as i write this, the STI sill managed to close at the day's high. Key resistance is around the 3020 level, while 3000 points looks like pretty good support. On the weekly chart, we can see that we have just broken out of the series of lower highs and lower lows over the past 8 weeks. If we can maintain this gain, chances are, we will have a good December.

a look at the STI

Above is an end of day daily chart of the STI. I thought that the STI would come crashing to 2903 after it broke 2976, but surprisingly, 2953 proved to be a rather good support. The STI did close below that for about 3 days, but after holding steady for 2 more days, proceeded to spring up to close to 3000 points. We have closed above 2976 for 2 days, which is a good sign, but now we see it struggling to hit 3000. So what is the big picture? China and US are starting to pickup. I am not too sure about Japan, but its stock market has been rallying hard, so perhaps it also is expected to pickup. EU is in a very bad shape. The bitter medicine that Germany is forcing Greece and Spain to take is obviously not working. Austerity alone is not going to help a dying economy. Let us hope that wisdom will prevail amongst the EU leaders. For the STI, the trend has turned down since it made a lower low 7 days ago. We are now bouncing up towards resistance at around 3020 where it may resume its downtrend.

critical juncture for the STI

Oh, oh. The STI is at a very critical juncture. It has broken down from the 144-day moving average and is right at the previous low of 2977. If this level fails to hold, then we are looking at a retracement to around 2900.

a look at the STI and some selected stocks

With the uncertainty over the US elections over, the market refocused on the many problems facing the world economy. For the local market, we are seeing another correction to the major uptrend started in Jun this year. The previous correction was in August when the STI hit the then year high of 3087 before hitting a low of 2977, a drop of 110 points over slightly less than a month. We hit a new 2012 high of 3111 in Oct and today's low was 2994 - a drop of 117 points over about 5 weeks. Based on today's price action (it bounced off the longer term moving average), and the generally oversold condition, it is likely that we will see a bounce up to the 3030 region. For now, the shorter and medium term trends are down, with minor relieve rallies. Key support number is 2977. If the STI breaks below that, we are in for a major trend reversal just like what happened in May this year.

Noble group dropped almost 8% to close at $1.175 after releasing results that disappointed analysts. We are now back to testing its previous major support at 1.165. A break below 1.165 would mean a possible retracement all the way to 1.02. Conversely, a break above 1.215 may see it attempt to close the gap at 1.265.

Plenty of selling pressure at genting. Results to be released next week. It has been sold down to previous support levels at 1.235 so there is a good chance of a bounce up to 1.31. But have to wait for 1.235 to hold first.

Another stock retracing all the way back to the previous low of 0.59. But there appears to be some support at about 0.605, and the MACD is exhibiting signs of a bullish divergence. If we are able to close above 0.625, there is a good chance of a reversal to the upside.

a look at STI and some stocks

Here is an end of day daily chart of the STI. The STI broke 3020 support during the day before climbing back to close within the sideways channel. The STI is still very much undecided. In the shorter term, the downside risk is greater as the STI has broken below both the short term and medium term moving averages. A close below 3020 would mean a likely test of 3000 points and 2990 points of the longer term moving average.

shares in Noble group sold off hard today after news broke that the consortium of NOBLE and POSCO walked away from its bid to take over the iron ore and steel producer, ARRIUM. Today's price action is extremely negative and it is sitting right at the previous low of 1.265 and slightly above the 144day moving average. Failure to hold the level around 1.25 could mean a drop to around the 1.22 level.

Golden agri continues to face selling pressure. Today's price action looks like a candlestick hammer - a reversal pattern, but i would like to see a close above 0.62 tomorrow for confirmation of a reversal.

Genting SP has been consolidating since 10 october and it looks like a breakout to the upside today with high volume. There is a good chance of it retesting the previous high of 1.42.