Major uptrend still intact, expect big moves

Above is a monthly chart of the STI. Since the low of 2009, we have been in a major uptrend, with only a minor correction in late 2011. Very significantly, we have broken through the previous high of 3313 at end 2010 and it looks likely that the STI will test 3600 soon. Support now is 3313. Capitaland is now resuming its uptrend after some consolidation. Support now is 3.60, with resistance at about 4.00. Boustead: consolidated sideways after hitting a high of 1.485. It looks like it will resume its uptrend. Support at 1.36, resistance is at 1.485. Today's price action was significant, with high volume and huge movement in price. Expect the upward momentum to continue. Noble group. Suffering from weak commodity prices. Price action traced a double bottom at 1.12, and looks poised to break out of the downtrend. Broken through the 21 EMA, but stopped by the 55 EMA. Significant resistance at 1.175. A close above that will signify a possible trend reversal.

SIA engineering, capitaland, boustead

SIA Engineering Company is a leading aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) company providing total maintenance solutions to an expanding client base of international airlines. This counter is one of the those recommended by Phillip Research. It closed at 5.04 today, just shy of the all time high of 5.10 in Jan 2013. This company provides excellent dividend. Last year, it paid out a total of $0.22 per share, and at a price of say $4.00 in 2012, you still get a yield of 5.5% and a very healthy capital appreciation to boot since it is now trading at about $5.00! Phillip Research has a target price of about $6.00, and looking at the price action, it certainly looks achievable in 2013. Technically, Capitaland is in a good sweet spot to go long, having retraced 61.8% between the peak of $4.03 and $2.40. It has been consolidating in a tight range from mid-march and looks poised to breakout to the upside. My target for capitaland is 4.03 (the previous high), with a stop of around 3.30 (the previous low). Boustead is another counter recommended by Phillip Research. It has been in a nice uptrend since late 2012, and its rise accelerated once it passed the $1.00 mark. It has retraced close to 61.8% from its previous high of 1.485 and is now trading around 1.38. Support is at 1.36 and my upside target is 1.485. Stop would be at 1.33 (the previous resistance).

uptrend still intact? A look at capitaland

Above is a daily end-of-day chart of the STI. The major trend is still up, medium trend is still up, but on the shorter term, it looks like it will continue to trend sideways as the momentum as shown by the MACD is still weak. Support is at 3247 and resistance is at 3330. My recommended strategy is to buy blue chip counters on pull-backs. Above is a weekly chart of Capitaland. Its price has retraced somewhat from a peak of 4.025 and closed today at 3.48. There is strong support at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level of 3.4 and this looks like a good time to accumulate this counter in anticipation of a break to the upside. Upside target would be the previous high of 4.025 with a stop of 3.28. (below the 144-day EMA).

The trend is your friend

Above is an end-of-day daily chart of the STI. It has been trending sideways since Feb 2013, with momentum on a downtrend. However, things appear different now that the STI hit a new 2013 high on 3 Apr and also correspondingly, the MACD made a higher high. All the moving averages are also trending higher. So i would suggest buying on pull backs. For example - see below chart: Above is an end-of-day daily chart of Boustead. This company provides niche Energy-Related Engineering, Water & Wastewater Engineering and Real Estate Solutions. It is in a strong long term uptrend, and after a nice pullback, it is showing signs of a reversal back to the main uptrend. Support is at about 1.36 and resistance is at 1.485.

STI and Golden agri - reversal?

Above is a daily chart of the STI. After yesterday's huge down candle, today we have a doji. This normally signals a reversal in trend, which in this case, would be a reversal of the downtrend since mid february. But a close below the previous low (3235) would signal a continuation of the correction. Above is a daily chart of Golden Agri. Poorer than expected results drove the share price lower. But $0.60 looks like a good support level and an entry for this counter. Resistance is at $0.685.

Still going sideways

Above is a daily chart of the STI. The STI is still going sideways. The focus is back to the US and EU. The recovery is US is gaining traction, with better housing stats and unemployment numbers. EU remains stuck in a recession. Earnings coming in are mixed, and thus for now, the markets are gyrating quite wildly. But major trend is still up, momentum seems to be turning up. Key levels are 3251 support and 3311 resistance for the STI.

Above is a daily chart of the STI. We are continuing to chop along. But I wish to draw your attention to my observations. Strong support is seen at 3251. This level has been tested twice and has held. A close below that level may signal a sell off to about 3200. For a confirmed continuation of the uptrend, the STI needs a close above 3320. But again, i say any pull back is a good opportunity to buy.

STI - sideways and looking tired

Here we have the daily chart of the STI. February has been a choppy month so far. Support at the 21 period moving average is still holding and the major trend is still up. But my main concern is the falling MACD and the inability of the STI to hold on to any gains. Resistance is at 3311 and support is at 3273. If 3273 is broken, next support is at 3250. Since longer term trend is up, i would suggest buying blue chips on corrections.

STI - momentum is on a downtrend

above is a daily chart of the STI. The STI has had a strong run up since Nov 2012, peaking at 3320 on 4 Feb 2013. However, after that, the STI has not been able to test that level again. The runup now looks tired, and we can see that the MACD peaked sometime in early Jan 2013 and made a lower high when the STI made a new high. This is bearish divergence and my guess is that the STI will come under selling pressure every time it attempts to rally. The 21-day moving average provided some support during the last correction and it looks like the STI will test that support around 3250-3260 if the STI consolidates further. Major trend is still up, but it looks like the STI needs to shed some points before buyers come in again.

STI - key resistance reached

Above is a weekly chart of the STI stretching all the way back to 2007. We had a major market crash in july 2007, which bottomed out in Oct 2008 and Mar 2009. We have been in an uptrend since then, which peaked in Oct 2010, then a correction until late September 2011. Since then, we have been chopping around and from Jul 2012 the upward momentum started to get stronger. And since we have been focusing on the downside, with all the talk about the weak global economy, we have failed to see that we have hit the previous high in Oct 2010. At this juncture, i see that the upward momentum is very strong. In fact, much stronger than the time in 2010 when the STI hit a high of 3314. So i think that this rally still has much going for it, and i would advise going long on any pull back. Next resistance levels are at 3600 and 3900.

a look at STI and selected counters

Above is a weekly chart of the STI. I am showing a weekly chart to give us a better feel of the major trends. The STI had quite a remarkable runup since mid November 2012 and is has been trading sideways for about 3 weeks now. Support is strong at 3200 with resistance at 3238. The major trend is up, and you can see that since Oct 2011, we have been making higher highs and higher lows. Any weakness in the market should be a good opportunity to go long.

Here is a daily chart of Noble Group. Consolidating after a huge runup in December 2012. Looks poised for another leg up. Support is 2.15. Resistance is 1.25, then 1.265 (the start of the huge gap down).

Genting is also consolidating after a runup in December, but the upside potential appears to be rather huge. Support is at 1.420 and resistance is at 1.635. There is also a bullish divergence between the MACD and the price between the july bottom and the Oct bottom, which is playing itself out now.

STI - great start to 2013

Above is a weekly chart of the STI. The STI has powered up strongly since late November 2012 and it does look like a minor correction is taking place. So far the support at 3172 has yet to be tested. Today, the STI went to a low of 3185 before rebounding strongly to close above 3200. The major trend is still up, but i think this is the start of a minor correction. I expect the STI to drop to 3150 before retesting the year's high of 3242. Any pull backs would be good buying opportunity, especially property, oil and gas, and commodities stocks as the outlook for the China economy going forward is positive.

Direction of the STI

Above is a weekly chart of the STI. I think it gives a much better picture of the trend of the STI. We can see that after the great volatility in 2011, the STI has been much more subdued, trading well within the high and low of 2011. I thought we were in for a serious down move after the STI broke a key pivot at 2977 (which also happens to be below psychological level of 3,000 points), but the STI managed to claw back to close above 3000 points so far this week. And despite a weak Europe opening as i write this, the STI sill managed to close at the day's high. Key resistance is around the 3020 level, while 3000 points looks like pretty good support. On the weekly chart, we can see that we have just broken out of the series of lower highs and lower lows over the past 8 weeks. If we can maintain this gain, chances are, we will have a good December.

a look at the STI

Above is an end of day daily chart of the STI. I thought that the STI would come crashing to 2903 after it broke 2976, but surprisingly, 2953 proved to be a rather good support. The STI did close below that for about 3 days, but after holding steady for 2 more days, proceeded to spring up to close to 3000 points. We have closed above 2976 for 2 days, which is a good sign, but now we see it struggling to hit 3000. So what is the big picture? China and US are starting to pickup. I am not too sure about Japan, but its stock market has been rallying hard, so perhaps it also is expected to pickup. EU is in a very bad shape. The bitter medicine that Germany is forcing Greece and Spain to take is obviously not working. Austerity alone is not going to help a dying economy. Let us hope that wisdom will prevail amongst the EU leaders. For the STI, the trend has turned down since it made a lower low 7 days ago. We are now bouncing up towards resistance at around 3020 where it may resume its downtrend.

critical juncture for the STI

Oh, oh. The STI is at a very critical juncture. It has broken down from the 144-day moving average and is right at the previous low of 2977. If this level fails to hold, then we are looking at a retracement to around 2900.

a look at the STI and some selected stocks

With the uncertainty over the US elections over, the market refocused on the many problems facing the world economy. For the local market, we are seeing another correction to the major uptrend started in Jun this year. The previous correction was in August when the STI hit the then year high of 3087 before hitting a low of 2977, a drop of 110 points over slightly less than a month. We hit a new 2012 high of 3111 in Oct and today's low was 2994 - a drop of 117 points over about 5 weeks. Based on today's price action (it bounced off the longer term moving average), and the generally oversold condition, it is likely that we will see a bounce up to the 3030 region. For now, the shorter and medium term trends are down, with minor relieve rallies. Key support number is 2977. If the STI breaks below that, we are in for a major trend reversal just like what happened in May this year.

Noble group dropped almost 8% to close at $1.175 after releasing results that disappointed analysts. We are now back to testing its previous major support at 1.165. A break below 1.165 would mean a possible retracement all the way to 1.02. Conversely, a break above 1.215 may see it attempt to close the gap at 1.265.

Plenty of selling pressure at genting. Results to be released next week. It has been sold down to previous support levels at 1.235 so there is a good chance of a bounce up to 1.31. But have to wait for 1.235 to hold first.

Another stock retracing all the way back to the previous low of 0.59. But there appears to be some support at about 0.605, and the MACD is exhibiting signs of a bullish divergence. If we are able to close above 0.625, there is a good chance of a reversal to the upside.

a look at STI and some stocks

Here is an end of day daily chart of the STI. The STI broke 3020 support during the day before climbing back to close within the sideways channel. The STI is still very much undecided. In the shorter term, the downside risk is greater as the STI has broken below both the short term and medium term moving averages. A close below 3020 would mean a likely test of 3000 points and 2990 points of the longer term moving average.

shares in Noble group sold off hard today after news broke that the consortium of NOBLE and POSCO walked away from its bid to take over the iron ore and steel producer, ARRIUM. Today's price action is extremely negative and it is sitting right at the previous low of 1.265 and slightly above the 144day moving average. Failure to hold the level around 1.25 could mean a drop to around the 1.22 level.

Golden agri continues to face selling pressure. Today's price action looks like a candlestick hammer - a reversal pattern, but i would like to see a close above 0.62 tomorrow for confirmation of a reversal.

Genting SP has been consolidating since 10 october and it looks like a breakout to the upside today with high volume. There is a good chance of it retesting the previous high of 1.42.

trend of the STI

above is an end-of-day daily chart of the STI. The STI is surprisingly resilient; we have had 2 triple digit losses in the DOW, but each time, after opening down, the STI recovered rather substantially. It was no different today. After opening down, it rallied hard on news that the China PMI data was better than expected, before selling off again on news that the Eurozone's PMI data was worse than expected. We have traded sideways since October, with support at 3020 and resistance at 3063. Support was only tested once, but resistance has been tested three times. It would appear now that support is strong, and that it is only a matter of time before resistance is broken. Momentum is slowly shifting to the upside, as can be seen by the green bars on the MACD. Longer term trend is still up. So it looks like aggressive investors can buy on dips with tight stops, while more conservative ones can wait for the STI to break out of 3063 (as a confirmation of an uptrend) before going long.

Key levels and direction of the STI

Above is an end of day daily chart of the STI. So where is the STI headed? Long term trend is up, but it looks increasingly that it will come down sharply first. Look at the MACD - the momentum has been falling since July 2012 while the price is going up - something called a bearish divergence. I believe this is the result of money being pumped into the economy without any real increase in company's profits/earning. Resistance is now at about 3066. Some support at 3020, but if that is broken, next support is at about 3000. Strong resistance is at 3088.

key levels for STI, noble group and Genting SP

Daily chart of STI. Uptrend is still being maintained, but momentum is still dropping. This is a sign of a big move coming; not sure if it will be up or down. STI opened strongly, but sold off in the afternoon to close only 3 points above yesterday's close. We are still unable to close the gap. Support is at 3020, near term resistance is at 3063, then 3088.

Noble group is breaking out of support at 1.27 and is hitting resistance at 1.335. The trend is up, and I expect it to test 1.38 soon. Strong support is at 1.27.

Genting SP looks to have found support at 1.31. Overall trend is still down, but momentum is rising. Resistances are at 1.36 and then 1.45.